دانلود ترجمه مقاله عدم قطعیت در رابطه با تبخیر- تعرق بالقوه در تاثیرات تغییر جوی بر جریان رودخانهارزیابی حوض
ترجمه در قالب فایل Word و قابل ویرایش میباشد
سال انتشار:2014
تعداد صفحه ترجمه:45
تعداد صفحه فایل انگلیسی:21
موضوع انگلیسی :Potential evapotranspiration-related uncertainty in climate change
impacts on river flow
موضوع فارسی:دانلود ترجمه مقاله عدم قطعیت در رابطه با تبخیر- تعرق بالقوه در تاثیرات تغییر جوی بر جریان رودخانهارزیابی حوض
چکیده انگلیسی:Six MIKE SHE models of the Mekong are developed, each employing potential evapotranspiration (PET)
derived using alternative methods: Blaney–Criddle (BC), Hamon (HM), Hargreaves–Samani (HS), Linacre
(LN), Penman (PN) and Priestley–Taylor (PT). Baseline (1961–1990) PET varies, with PT followed by HS
providing the lowest totals, LN and BC the highest. The largest mean annual PET is over 1.5 times the
smallest. Independent calibration of each model results in different optimised parameter sets that mitigate
differences in baseline PET. Performance of each model is ‘‘excellent’’ (monthly NSE > 0.85) or ‘‘very
good’’ (NSE: 0.65–0.85). Scenarios based on seven GCMs for a 2 C increase in global mean temperature
are investigated. Inter-GCM variation in precipitation change is much larger (in percentage terms by 2.5–
10 times) than inter-GCM differences in PET change. Precipitation changes include catchment-wide
increases or decreases as well as spatially variable directions of change, whereas PET increases for all scenarios.
BC and HS produce the smallest changes, LN and HM the largest. PET method does impact scenario
discharges. However, GCM-related uncertainty for change in mean discharge is on average 3.5 times
greater than PET method-related uncertainty. Scenarios with catchment-wide precipitation increases
(decreases) induce increases (decreases) in mean discharge irrespective of PET method. Magnitude of
change in discharge is conditioned by PET method; larger increases or smaller declines in discharge result
from methods producing the smallest PET increases. Uncertainty in the direction of change in mean discharge
due to PET method occurs for scenarios with spatially variable precipitation change, although this
is limited to few gauging stations and differences are relatively small. For all scenarios, PET methodrelated
uncertainty in direction of change in high and low flows occurs, but seasonal distribution of discharge
is largely unaffected. As such, whilst PET method does influence projections of discharge, variation
in the precipitation climate change signal between GCMs is a much larger source of uncertainty
چکیده فارسی:دانلود ترجمه مقاله عدم قطعیت در رابطه با تبخیر- تعرق بالقوه در تاثیرات تغییر جوی بر جریان رودخانهارزیابی حوض
