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موضوع به انگلیسی:External debt vulnerability in
emerging markets and developing
economies during the
COVID-19 shock
بخشی از متن:Abstract
Purpose – This paper aims to assess to what extent the COVID-19 shock is expected to create a debt crisis
in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) through two main questions: what are the main
determinants of EMDEs external vulnerability? How vulnerable are EMDEs to the current COVID-19 shock
compared to the global financial crisis (GFC)?
Design/methodology/approach – In addition to a descriptive analysis of the determinants of EMDEs
external vulnerability, this paper designs two sub-indices of overindebtedness and financial fragility that
capture EMDEs’ distinct characteristics. The two sub-indices together illustrate the overall external
vulnerability to the current shock.
Findings – EMDEs are more vulnerable compared to the GFC era. Current debt threats arise mainly from
debt architecture and the domination of volatile debt forms – primarily foreign currency-denominated bonds.
Excessive fear of debt-deflation spirals after the GFC prompted EMDEs to expand their growth trajectories
through a pattern of cheap private lending, loose measures and unmonitored fiscal expansion.
Research limitations/implications – Conclusive post-crisis data are still unavailable.
Practical implications – EMDEs need to balance between temporary accommodative measures and a
post-shock policy mix that prevent a deflation spiral without worsening indebtedness and financial fragility.
Moreover, financial prudence in face of growing credit demand is crucial, particularly in light of the monetary
expansion and injected liquidity.
Originality/value – The indices offer a framework for examining external vulnerability in EMDEs based
on theoretical and historical revisions, IMF benchmarks and EMDEs specific debt characteristics. The indices
components can be offered for empirical examination in separate future research once conclusive data become
available.
Keywords Emerging markets, External debt, COVID-19 shock, External vulnerability,
Financial fragility
Paper type Research paper
