دانلود مقاله با موضوع بینش های به دست آمده از مدل سازی اولیه COVID-19 برای اطلاع مدیریت از شیوع بیماری
در قالب pdf و در 18 اسلاید،قابل ویرایش، شامل:
موضوع به انگلیسی:Insights gained from early modelling of
COVID-19 to inform the management of
outbreaks in UK prisons
بخشی از متن:Abstract
Purpose – In this work, the authors present some of the key results found during early efforts to model the
COVID-19 outbreak inside a UK prison. In particular, this study describes outputs from an idealised
disease model that simulates the dynamics of a COVID-19 outbreak in a prison setting when varying
levels of social interventions are in place, and a Monte Carlo-based model that assesses the reduction in
risk of case importation, resulting from a process that requires incoming prisoners to undergo a period of
self-isolation prior to admission into the general prison population.
Design/methodology/approach – Prisons, typically containing large populations confined in a small
space with high degrees of mixing, have long been known to be especially susceptible to disease
outbreaks. In an attempt to meet rising pressures from the emerging COVID-19 situation in early 2020,
modellers for Public Health England’s Joint Modelling Cell were asked to produce some rapid response
work that sought to inform the approaches that Her Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS)
might take to reduce the risk of case importation and sustained transmission in prison environments.
Findings – Key results show that deploying social interventions has the potential to considerably reduce
the total number of infections, while such actions could also reduce the probability that an initial infection will
propagate into a prison-wide outbreak. For example, modelling showed that a 50% reduction in the risk of
transmission (compared to an unmitigated outbreak) could deliver a 98% decrease in total number of cases,
while this reduction could also result in 86.8% of outbreaks subsiding before more than five persons have
become infected. Furthermore, this study also found that requiring new arrivals to self-isolate for 10 and
14days prior to admission could detect up to 98%and 99% of incoming infections, respectively
