دانلود مقاله با موضوع ویژگی های رفتاری اجتماعی فرهنگی در مدل سازی پیش بینی نرخ عفونت COVID-19
در قالب pdf و در16 اسلاید،قابل ویرایش، شامل:
موضوع به انگلیسی:Sociocultural behavioral traits in
modelling the prediction of
COVID-19 infection rates
بخشی از متن:Abstract
Purpose – Over the past decades, many health authorities and public policy experts have traditionally relied
on indicators that are dependent on a nation’s economy, its health-care infrastructure advancements, and
superiority in biomedical sciences and technology to predict potential infection rates should a health pandemic
occur. One such commonly relied-upon indicator was that of the Global Health Security (GHS) Index. However,
the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has shown how such variables prove to be inaccurate in
predicting the infection rates during a global health pandemic. Hence, this paper proposes the utilization of
socio-cultural behavioral traits to predict a country’s COVID-19 infection rates.
Design/methodology/approach – This is achieved by proposing a model involving the classification and
regression tree (CART) algorithm and a Poisson regression against the six selected cultural behavioral
predictors consisting of individualism, power distance, masculinity, uncertainty avoidance, long-term
orientation, and indulgence.
Findings – The results show that all the selected cultural behavioral predictors are significant in impacting
COVID-19 infection rates. Furthermore, the model outperforms the conventional GHS Index model based on a
means squared error comparison.
Research limitations/implications – The authors hope that this study would continue promoting the use
of cultures and behaviors in modeling the spread of health diseases.
Practical implications – The authors hope that their works could prove beneficial to public office holders, as
well as health experts working in health facilities, in better predicting potential outcomes during a health
pandemic, thus allowing them to plan and allocate resources efficiently.
Originality/value – The results are a testament to the fact that sociocultural behavioral traits are more reliant
predictors in modeling cross-national infection rates of global health pandemics, like that of COVID-19, as
compared to economic-centric indicators.
Keywords Health policy, COVID-19, Cultures, Sociocultural behaviors
Paper type Research paper
